Blackjack Probability and Blackjack Odds
The material that follows illustrates the blackjack basics calculations by which those odds were derived. Odds for initial hands. The standard deck contains cards of thirteen possible values, so the odds of receiving a single card of any given value the same: there is a 1 in 13 chance (7.69%) a card will be of any value, and this is equal for every value. BLACKJACK ODDS: 12 AGAINST A DEALER 4 Another hand where your strategy is dependent upon the makeup of the cards is a starting total of 12 against a dealer's 4 upcard in games with S17.
To fully understand the game of blackjack, you must understand and master blackjack odds. It's crucial to know how the casino gains its edge and how it helps them win. It's also important to understand blackjack odds such as the odds of hitting a 10 or the odds of being dealt a blackjack. You can read over these blackjack odds charts to help understand the logistics behind blackjack.
Casino and Dealer Advantage in Blackjack
In most casino games of blackjack, the house advantage (the dealer advantage) is ~ 8%. The house gets this advantage by the dealer being the last player to act. By acting last, all other players have already made their decisions and could quite possibly bust before the dealer has his turn.
By using correct blackjack basic strategy, you can turn the casino edge in blackjack from 7%-8% down to 0.5%. If you correctly use advanced card counting techniques, you can often change blackjack odds and give yourself the advantage over the casino. Manipulating the house odds to your favor is the reason most casinos don't allow card counters to play blackjack.
Probability of Busting on a Hit
It's very important to know the probability of your hand busting when you are holding any total in the game of blackjack. The following odds chart shows the blackjack odds of busting, depending on your current hand value:
| Hand Value | % Bust If You Hit |
|---|---|
| 21 | 100% |
| 20 | 92% |
| 19 | 85% |
| 18 | 77% |
| 17 | 69% |
| 16 | 62% |
| 15 | 58% |
| 14 | 56% |
| 13 | 39% |
| 12 | 31% |
| 11 or Less | 0% |
Two-Card Count Frequencies
This interesting blackjack odds chart is the two card count frequency chart. This chart shows the percentage chance that you will be dealt a hand in each given value range. The most important frequencey to note is the chance of being dealt a natural blackjack (natural 21 value. The odds of being dealt a natural blackjack are merely 4.8%. Following this chart you will see that the most common two card hand, at 38.7%, is a hand totaling 1-16, which is considered a decision hand.
| Two Card Count | % Frequency |
|---|---|
| Natural 21 | 4.8% |
| Hard Standing (17-20) | 30.0 % |
| Decision Hands (1-16) | 38.7% |
| No Bust | 26.5% |
| TOTAL | 100.0% |
Dealer Final Hand Probabilities
This blackjack odds chart shows the dealer final hand probability. These are the percentages that the dealer will end up with a hand totaling each corresponding value (up to 16). Read over this chart to understand the odds that the dealer has to make his final hand.
| Dealer Final Hand Value | % | Cumulative % Total |
|---|---|---|
| Natural 21 | 4.82% | 4.83% |
| 21 (3 or More Cards) | 7.36% | 12.19% |
| 20 | 17.58% | 29.77% |
| 19 | 13.48% | 43.25% |
| 18 | 13.81% | 57.06% |
| 17 | 14.58% | 71.64% |
| 16 | 28.36% | 100.00% |
Player Advantage vs. Dealer Up Card
The first two columns in this odds chart explain the dealer's chance of busting, depending on the up card that he is showing. You should note that the dealer has the highest chance of busting when he is showing a 5. The third column in this chart shows the player advantage of using basic strategy, compared to each up card the dealer is showing. You can see that the player has the highest advantage of 23.9%, when the dealer is showing a 5. When the dealer is showing any card that is 9 value or higher, the player is in the negative advantage range.
| Dealer Up Card | Dealer Bust % | Player Advantage % with Basic Strategy |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | 35.30% | 9.8% |
| 3 | 37.56% | 13.4% |
| 4 | 40.28% | 18.0% |
| 5 | 42.89% | 23.2% |
| 6 | 42.08% | 23.9% |
| 7 | 25.99% | 14.3% |
| 8 | 23.86% | 5.4% |
| 9 | 23.34% | -4.3% |
| J,Q,K | 21.43% | -16.9% |
| A | 11.65% | -16.0% |
Effects of Removing Cards from a Deck
When looking at the odds of removing certain cards from a 52-card deck, some cards have a much greater effect on blackjack odds. To create the strongest card counting system ever invented, you would have to incorporate all of these slight and subtle differences into the numbers to be a completely accurate system.
Removing every 5 from a deck cards would make the largest impact of improving your blackjack odds, as a player. On the other hand, removing every Ace from a deck of cards would make the largest impact on improving the odds for the casino.
| Card | % Effect of Removal |
|---|---|
| 2 | 0.40% |
| 3 | 0.43% |
| 4 | 0.52% |
| 5 | 0.67% |
| 6 | 0.45% |
| 7 | 0.30% |
| 8 | 0.01% |
| 9 | -0.15% |
| 10 | -0.51% |
| A | -0.59% |
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Table Of Contents
With simple rules and easy to learn strategies, the game of blackjack is one of the most popular card games in both Las Vegas Casinos and online around the world.
Blackjack side bets add a layer of complexity to the game, though at much greater risk.
In this article we'll take a look at the different side bet options, how they are structured and what side bets pay.
- What are Blackjack side bets?
- Why play Blackjack side bets?
- Common side bets at most Casinos
- Other side bets to look out for
- Are Blackjack side bets worth playing?
What are Blackjack side bets?
Blackjack side bets are additional bets placed during a standard game of Blackjack. They involve predicting which cards the player, and sometimes the dealer, will receive.
Wagers are made before any cards are dealt and each side bet is based on chance rather than skill, although you can count cards to help you choose the most likely combinations for your best side bets.
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Play NowWhy play side bets?
One of the most attractive features of the game of Blackjack is the low house edge compared to other games on the casino floor.
Good players will face a house edge of around 0.5%, and even if you play quite badly, that edge only rises to around 2%.
However, while the odds of losing big are low, the odds of winning are also poor.
Blackjack is mostly an even money game, rising to 2:1 at best if you are dealt a Blackjack.
Side bets offer you the chance to play much longer odds for higher player wins – as much as 5,000:1 in one case.
However, it must be noted that the house edge rises significantly for Blackjack side bets, with most bets carrying a house edge of 10% or more.
In other words, side bets make it a lot easier to lose money on blackjack.
Common side bets at most Casinos
There are a number of common side bets that you will find at most Blackjack tables.
These are clearly marked with the odds either printed on the Blackjack tables or available as a hand out or a side menu in the online version.
You should check the pay outs carefully before placing your bets as they can vary considerably between different Casinos or online sites.
In most casino games of blackjack, the house advantage (the dealer advantage) is ~ 8%. The house gets this advantage by the dealer being the last player to act. By acting last, all other players have already made their decisions and could quite possibly bust before the dealer has his turn.
By using correct blackjack basic strategy, you can turn the casino edge in blackjack from 7%-8% down to 0.5%. If you correctly use advanced card counting techniques, you can often change blackjack odds and give yourself the advantage over the casino. Manipulating the house odds to your favor is the reason most casinos don't allow card counters to play blackjack.
Probability of Busting on a Hit
It's very important to know the probability of your hand busting when you are holding any total in the game of blackjack. The following odds chart shows the blackjack odds of busting, depending on your current hand value:
| Hand Value | % Bust If You Hit |
|---|---|
| 21 | 100% |
| 20 | 92% |
| 19 | 85% |
| 18 | 77% |
| 17 | 69% |
| 16 | 62% |
| 15 | 58% |
| 14 | 56% |
| 13 | 39% |
| 12 | 31% |
| 11 or Less | 0% |
Two-Card Count Frequencies
This interesting blackjack odds chart is the two card count frequency chart. This chart shows the percentage chance that you will be dealt a hand in each given value range. The most important frequencey to note is the chance of being dealt a natural blackjack (natural 21 value. The odds of being dealt a natural blackjack are merely 4.8%. Following this chart you will see that the most common two card hand, at 38.7%, is a hand totaling 1-16, which is considered a decision hand.
| Two Card Count | % Frequency |
|---|---|
| Natural 21 | 4.8% |
| Hard Standing (17-20) | 30.0 % |
| Decision Hands (1-16) | 38.7% |
| No Bust | 26.5% |
| TOTAL | 100.0% |
Dealer Final Hand Probabilities
This blackjack odds chart shows the dealer final hand probability. These are the percentages that the dealer will end up with a hand totaling each corresponding value (up to 16). Read over this chart to understand the odds that the dealer has to make his final hand.
| Dealer Final Hand Value | % | Cumulative % Total |
|---|---|---|
| Natural 21 | 4.82% | 4.83% |
| 21 (3 or More Cards) | 7.36% | 12.19% |
| 20 | 17.58% | 29.77% |
| 19 | 13.48% | 43.25% |
| 18 | 13.81% | 57.06% |
| 17 | 14.58% | 71.64% |
| 16 | 28.36% | 100.00% |
Player Advantage vs. Dealer Up Card
The first two columns in this odds chart explain the dealer's chance of busting, depending on the up card that he is showing. You should note that the dealer has the highest chance of busting when he is showing a 5. The third column in this chart shows the player advantage of using basic strategy, compared to each up card the dealer is showing. You can see that the player has the highest advantage of 23.9%, when the dealer is showing a 5. When the dealer is showing any card that is 9 value or higher, the player is in the negative advantage range.
| Dealer Up Card | Dealer Bust % | Player Advantage % with Basic Strategy |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | 35.30% | 9.8% |
| 3 | 37.56% | 13.4% |
| 4 | 40.28% | 18.0% |
| 5 | 42.89% | 23.2% |
| 6 | 42.08% | 23.9% |
| 7 | 25.99% | 14.3% |
| 8 | 23.86% | 5.4% |
| 9 | 23.34% | -4.3% |
| J,Q,K | 21.43% | -16.9% |
| A | 11.65% | -16.0% |
Effects of Removing Cards from a Deck
When looking at the odds of removing certain cards from a 52-card deck, some cards have a much greater effect on blackjack odds. To create the strongest card counting system ever invented, you would have to incorporate all of these slight and subtle differences into the numbers to be a completely accurate system.
Removing every 5 from a deck cards would make the largest impact of improving your blackjack odds, as a player. On the other hand, removing every Ace from a deck of cards would make the largest impact on improving the odds for the casino.
| Card | % Effect of Removal |
|---|---|
| 2 | 0.40% |
| 3 | 0.43% |
| 4 | 0.52% |
| 5 | 0.67% |
| 6 | 0.45% |
| 7 | 0.30% |
| 8 | 0.01% |
| 9 | -0.15% |
| 10 | -0.51% |
| A | -0.59% |
See also:
US Players and Credit Card, BitCoin Deposits Accepted!
Table Of Contents
With simple rules and easy to learn strategies, the game of blackjack is one of the most popular card games in both Las Vegas Casinos and online around the world.
Blackjack side bets add a layer of complexity to the game, though at much greater risk.
In this article we'll take a look at the different side bet options, how they are structured and what side bets pay.
- What are Blackjack side bets?
- Why play Blackjack side bets?
- Common side bets at most Casinos
- Other side bets to look out for
- Are Blackjack side bets worth playing?
What are Blackjack side bets?
Blackjack side bets are additional bets placed during a standard game of Blackjack. They involve predicting which cards the player, and sometimes the dealer, will receive.
Wagers are made before any cards are dealt and each side bet is based on chance rather than skill, although you can count cards to help you choose the most likely combinations for your best side bets.
BEST Blackjack Games OnlinePlay nothing but the best games, with the best odds..and the best bonuses! 18+. T&Cs apply. Gamble responsibly.
Check out the one site where all side bets give you the best payouts in 2019.
Play NowWhy play side bets?
One of the most attractive features of the game of Blackjack is the low house edge compared to other games on the casino floor.
Good players will face a house edge of around 0.5%, and even if you play quite badly, that edge only rises to around 2%.
However, while the odds of losing big are low, the odds of winning are also poor.
Blackjack is mostly an even money game, rising to 2:1 at best if you are dealt a Blackjack.
Side bets offer you the chance to play much longer odds for higher player wins – as much as 5,000:1 in one case.
However, it must be noted that the house edge rises significantly for Blackjack side bets, with most bets carrying a house edge of 10% or more.
In other words, side bets make it a lot easier to lose money on blackjack.
Common side bets at most Casinos
There are a number of common side bets that you will find at most Blackjack tables.
These are clearly marked with the odds either printed on the Blackjack tables or available as a hand out or a side menu in the online version.
You should check the pay outs carefully before placing your bets as they can vary considerably between different Casinos or online sites.
The three main Blackjack side bets are:
- Insurance
- Perfect Pairs
- 21+3
Insurance – this is the most common Blackjack side bet and allows you to cover yourself against Blackjack if the dealer has an ace face up.
This bet involves half of your original stake and pays out at 2:1 if the dealer has Blackjack. The insurance bet reduces the overall house edge.
Perfect Pairs – this side bet uses the player's cards only, and pays out if you are dealt two of a kind as follows:
- Mixed pair (two of the same value but different suit and colour) – pays 5:1
- Coloured pair (two of the same value and the same colour) – pays 12:1
- Perfect pair (two of the same card) – pays 25:1
The returns can vary between different Casinos and different pay tables and the house edge will depend on both the pay out and the number of decks used and can range from just 2 or 3% up to 11% or more. Free family guy online.
Odds On Blackjack Against House
21+3 – this side bet involves the player's two cards and the upturned card of the dealer. It will pay out for a number of different combinations:
- Flush – (all cards are suited) – pays 5:1
- Straight – (all cards consecutive) – pays 10:1
- Three of a kind – (not the same suit) – pays 30:1
- Straight flush – (consecutive cards same suit) – pays 40:1
- Suited triple – (three of the same card) – pays 100:1
The house edge for the 21+3 side bet will vary depending on the number of decks used, standing at 8.78% for four decks, 7.81% for five decks, 7.14% for six decks and 6.29% for seven decks.
Other side bets to look out for
The Casino industry is highly competitive, and so new side bets are being invented all the time to try and attract new Blackjack players.
Some of these will flourish and become widely available, while others remain niche and can only be found in selected Casinos. Here are a few examples:
- Royal match – pays 5:2 for any suited player's cards and 25:1 for suited king and queen
- Over/under 13 – pays even money for correctly predicting the sum of the player's cards as less than or greater than 13. In most cases, exactly 13 will lose, but some Casinos will allow bets on exactly 13.
- Super sevens – this bet pays out if one or more sevens are dealt in the player's cards. One seven pays 3:1, two unsuited sevens pays 50:1, two suited sevens pays 100:1. If the third card dealt is also a seven, then the bet will pay 500:1 unsuited and 5000:1 suited. However it is important to make sure that the Casino will still deal a third card if the dealer has a Blackjack, as some Casinos will not do this.
- Lucky ladies – this bet pays out if the player's cards add up to 20, with an unsuited 20 paying 4:1, a suited 20 paying 10:1, a matched 20, same rank and suit pays 25:1, two queens of hearts 200:1 and two queens of hearts when dealer has Blackjack 1000:1.
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Casino Odds On Blackjack
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Play NowAre Blackjack side bets worth playing?
Blackjack side bets do not involve any skill and you are simply betting on the luck of the draw.
What's more, the returns do not reflect the odds of each bet coming in, which gives the house a significantly larger edge.
Conclusion
Blackjack side bets are best viewed as a bit of extra complexity that adds up to a session at the Blackjack table.
Odds On Blackjack Hands
However, you should not make them the main focus of your gameplay or your wagering, and you should be aware of the significantly increased house edge.
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