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3 Kings Slot GameART are the company behind the Three Kings slot machine, a company who are known for creating slot games that feature a Chinese theme. Free welcome bonus no deposit casino. 3 Kings is a 5-reel, 15-line online slot game with bonus round, bonus spins, instant play, autoplay, video slots, wild symbol, scatter symbol, gamble feature, mystic, chinese, dragons, gold, holidays and culture themes you can play at 315 online casinos.
90% of the time I analyze a game like this it comes up tits. Nothing there. But I'm willing to pay the cost because of the 10% of the time I find a gem.
Just thinking about your history is amazing..you have journeyed from a boxcar-riding hobo credit hustler to an advanced slot AP who knows all the math. Incredible.
I still would like to know whether there is some sort of, 'Behind the scenes,' RNG type spin that goes on every time to determine if the progressive will win, or if the machine simply randomly determines a set $$$-value or spin number at reset. If it is the latter, then the probability of hitting the Progressive a coin-in basis is simply 1/(However many spins remain until it must be hit) based on the meter increase. If that could be known, then an expected value (in percentage terms) could be determined for just the Progressive and you could assume whatever you want for the rest.
For an example of what I mean, let's say you had a Minor at $48.09/$50.00 and the meter movement for the Minor is $0.01 per $2.00 bet. I tend to want to minimize Variance if at an advantage (have to determine that first) so I am going to bet the minimum of $0.40 and it takes five bets to move the Minor $0.01, then you have 191*5 = 955 bets to hit the must-hit point.
If we could assume that the remaining amount to the must-hit is simultaneously reflective of the probability of hitting, then the first spin would be 1/955.
The EV of the Minor, if that could be assumed, would be 1/955 * 48.09 = .050356 or 5.0356 cents.
If we have a bet of $0.40, then 5.0356 cents is .0503556/.4 = .12589 or 12.589% of the bet.
Therefore, if you want to assume a base return of 1-.12589 = 87.411%, or better, completely ignoring the Minor Progressive, as well as its base value, then you would be at an advantage.
The problem with this is that it cannot be assumed, I don't think, because it is possible that there is some separate random mechanism that either rewards or does not reward the jackpot on a per spin basis.
On the Wizard's page regarding this:
http://wizardofodds.com/games/slots/mystery-jackpot/
$48.09 would be the target point for the Minor assuming a 12% base hold if the major were at $380, so I would suggest that Wizard is not making the above assumption. I would not make it, either, because there is really no way to know.
EDIT: Actually, Wizard's analysis was based on amount won, so I wonder if he would agree with this?
Spins: 2,335
2,335x1.25 = a total wager of $2,919
The return in the main game was $1,576
1576/2919 = a 53.99% return
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I caught the Purple Lions 13 times for a total of 246 free spins.
2355/13 = a frequency of 181.15
Catching the Purple Lions pays $5.
13X5 = $65
65/2919 = 2.23%
The 246 free spins averaged to $1.4146 per spin for a total of $348
348/2919 = 11.92%
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I caught the Red Lions 6 times for a total of 269 free spins
2355/6 = a frequency of 392.5
Catching the Red Lions pays $15
15x6 = $90
90/2919 = 3.08%
The 269 free games averaged to $1.9628 per spin for a total of $528
528/2919 = 18.09%
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I caught the Green Lions twice for a total of 137 free spins.
2355/2 = a frequency of 1178
Catching the Green Lions pays $44
44X2 = $88
88/2919 = 3.01%
The 137 free games averaged to $2.635 per spin for a total of $361
361/2919 = 12.38%
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My total return was 3056 bets or 104.7%. Whooppeeeee! We've got a play, don't we? ....Houston we have a problem. These are not the only stats I recorded. I made a spreadsheet out of a couple of pages in my notebook and recorded stats on the lion symbols as they landed in the screen. I literally stopped after every spin and recorded it.
Here are the results from 2000 spins
Green Lions
1st reel......2nd reel......3rd reel
.387.........112..........100
Red Lions
2nd reel......3rd reel......4th reel
.330........259...........119
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Purple Lions
3rd reel... ...4th reel......5th reel
.687.........365..........138
These stats suggest different frequencies for catching the free games than what my actual results were:
Green Lions.....1846 This is a much longer frequency than my actual stat of 1178
Red Lions.......787 This is a much longer frequency than my actual stat of 392.5
Purple Lions.....231 This is a much longer frequency than my actual stat of 181
It appears I just ran lucky on catching the free games. So I applied the longer frequencies to the return I got in the first set of stats. Then I imagined I was getting the max number of free games every time, i.e., 80 free games with the Green Lions, 50 free games with the Red Lions and 25 free games the Purple Lions.
The return comes to 90.5%.
Advantage play my ass!
I concur.
I concur.
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I have to say, I respect the work that you put in to analyze it. I really think that keeping your eyes open and analyzing any angle that you can think of is half the game here.
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